Ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting has gained utmost importance in today's world by considering the swift changes in behavioral traits of several species and global warming. Ecological forecasting makes use of the information from physiology, physics and ecology to forecast how ecosystem will develop in the near future and what are the factors causing it like climatic changes. The ultimate objective of this approach is to provide resource managers and marine reserves designers with significant information so that they can predict any future changes in ecosystem in advance.

Why ecological forecasting?

The major reason behind ecological forecasting is global warming. Almost all physiological processes are highly influenced by temperature that is why even small changes in climate or weather can result huge changes in reproduction, growth and survival of several plants and animals. Since the beginning of industrial era, a surprising increase in greenhouse gases (due to human's activities) has been observed. These changes in turn affect both natural and human ecosystem. So the concept of ecological forecasting has been introduced, it applies existing information of how plant and humans interact with each other and also with their physical environ. The interaction is basically done to know that how environmental factors result in huge changes in ecosystems.

Major approaches of ecological forecasting

Niche level modeling: - It is a much advanced approach that associates physiological knowledge of species to the models of temperature of plant as well as animal's body. This approach renders much exact results; however it is time consuming.

Climate envelop modeling: - It applies on statistical associations environmental variables and species distributions to describe the specie's moderation. By estimating future factors like salinity, rainfall and temperature, newer boundaries are also guesstimated. This method is considered best for studying larger amount of species, but can not be effectively used for estimating effects at improved levels.

Benefits of ecological forecasting

This approach helps to improve the decisions to maintain the productivity of ecosystem and also help to reduce the affects from severe natural incidents and human behaviors.

It brings together resource managers and scientists to resolve resource distribution problems.
Ecological forecasting stresses upon scientific research and observing priorities to lessen the uncertainties in forecasts.